Presidential Election: Sajith Premadasa Leads in Latest Survey

As Sri Lanka gears up for its Presidential Election on September 21, 2024, the political landscape is becoming increasingly competitive. According to the latest survey conducted by the Independent Health and Policy (IHP) research centre, Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) is currently leading with 43% support.

The IHP Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) for June 2024 indicates that Premadasa’s support has increased by 4 percentage points from May, positioning him ahead of his competitors. In contrast, Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People’s Power (NPP)/Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) has seen a decline in support, dropping to 30%, down by 6 percentage points.

Current President Ranil Wickremesinghe has also experienced a rise in voter support, reaching 20%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous month. Meanwhile, a potential SLPP candidate, businessman Dhammika Perera, stands at 7%, a slight decrease of 1 percentage point.

The survey, which involves data from 18,213 interviews conducted between October 2021 and July 21, 2024, highlights the growing uncertainty in voter preferences. The margins of error for June’s estimates are notably high, ranging from 1% to 11%, reflecting increased volatility in the electorate’s choices. This suggests that the race remains tight, with the top contenders still within the margin of error.

IHP, led by Dr. Ravi Rannan-Eliya, employs a sophisticated Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification (MRP) model to gauge public opinion, providing a nuanced view of electoral trends. The methodology adjusts for uncertainties and aligns with the national population profile to ensure accurate predictions.

As the election date approaches, IHP plans to expand its interviews to refine these estimates and offer clearer insights into the shifting dynamics of the presidential race. (LankaXpress.com)